Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
