A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
